Sensitivity Analysis for Evaluating Importance of Variables Used in an Urban Water Supply Planning Model

The yield of an urban water supply system is defined as the average annual volume of water that can be supplied from the water supply system over a given planning period, subject to streamflow variability, operating rules and demand pattern, without violating the adopted level of service. Since yield plays a key role in the management of urban water supply systems, it is important for water authorities to accurately estimate it with minimal inherent uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis can identify key variables used in yield estimation, allowing water authorities to improve the knowledge of those variables (or input factors) and thus to improve the confidence and reliability of the system yield.